Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Most overvalued acquisitions

I submit these as probably the two most overvalued/wasteful acquisitions of all time... but which is worse?

1. Verisign buys Network Solutions for $21 billion
2. SBC purchases AT&T for $16 billion

The AT&T purchase boils down to a huge stack of money for a name. I imagine a few AT&T assets might pan out, but I think SBC readily admits that the only asset they were interested in was the name.
SBC's annual revenue in 2005 was $43 billion with profit of less than $5 billion. Is it possible that the name recognition they gain (costs of switching names for SBC, sub-brands, and Cingular will also be in the billions) is worth $16 billion+ or 3-4 years of profit? How long will it take for such a intangible benefit to make sense?
Let's see... How much is the calculated value of a mega brand like Coke? According to Forbes it's 55 billion - I don't know how they arrive at that valuation, but it does somehow make it seem potentially reasonable to pay >$16billion for perhaps the #1 telecommunications brand name.

Initially I thought that the AT&T purchase was worse, 'cause SBC gains nothing tangible...

Verisign combined with another company who had been a pillar of the internet up to that point. A company that for years was involved in every single site on the internet (to the tune of at least $35/year/TLD). The number of TLD's is many millions and growing rapidly.

Verisign's core revenue source (especially back then) is based on a similar "we were there first" advantage of being a certificate authority installed by default in every SSL enable browser. They charge ~$800/year for a certificate to provide secure communications over the internet. This is a prerequisite for accepting any type of payments through your website.

So far so good - but at the time of acquisition, domain name registration had been deregulated long enough for around 100 other registrar's to open up shop. Network Solutions was no longer a monopoly. I haven't seen an article come right out and say it, but I can't view this purchase as anything but a blunder of nearly unimaginable proportions. According to registrarstats.com today's top registrar is GoDaddy.com. GoDaddy is privately held (I think by one guy). I'd be willing to bet the initial investment was much less than $10 million. Even if we say the March 2000 value of GoDaddy.com was $21 million (which I really doubt), Verisign paid 1000 times as much for a business that today is worth MUCH less. They could have just established themselves as a registrar and starting selling certificates for somewhere in the ballpark of $1 million - including the salaries of all employees involved in the work and all related expenses.

I propose that the $21 billion purchase of Network Solutions is the most wasteful corporate acquisition of all time. The AT&T purchase looks completely reasonable by comparison. Perhaps the acquisition was already planned before registrar deregulation, and Verisign didn't realize the impact that had on the value of Network Solutions?

Am I somehow under valuing the business? Or perhaps you know of an even more wasteful acquisition?

No comments: